We’re into the second half of 2025, and though there has been a considerable amount of uncertainty surrounding the economy, the U.S. truckload market has remained relatively calm.
Typically, produce season and summer shipping trends drive volatility. While they did cause some incremental tightening during the second quarter, they weren’t enough to trigger a massive shift in market dynamics.
Overall, we’re seeing a continuation of the same trends that have been on repeat since 2023: a muted demand picture leading to lower freight volumes, waning carrier capacity, and a prolonged stable rate environment (though they are increasing on a year-over-year basis).
So what does all this mean for shippers and carriers?
Is the market heating up or cooling down?
How are tariffs and trade policy impacting the market?
What about Peak Season?
We’ll tell you everything you need to know in the latest truckload market guide.
Q3 Truckload Market:
The Complete Guide for Logistics Pros
What you’ll learn in this comprehensive update:
- Q2 2025 truckload market recap
- Macroeconomic outlook
- 6 trucking trends to watch right now
- Q3 2025 truckload market forecast
New to the Curve?
These essential truckload market resources will give you foundational industry knowledge and teach you how how we build our proprietary spot rate index.
Want slides for your next presentation?
Download all the Curve charts and graphs, formatted for slides.
RXO & the Curve
RXO acquired Coyote Logistics in September 2024. As a new, combined company, we will not only continue publishing industry-leading insights (like the Curve) — we plan on making them even better. Now, as the now third largest full-truckload freight broker in North America, we’ll have an even broader, richer dataset to analyze. We look forward to bringing you more freight market content throughout 2025 and beyond.
Spot & Contract Trucking Rate Recap: Q2 2025
Overall, Q2 was soft in terms of freight demand and rate volatility, compared to typical seasonality.
Though the Curve spot rate index remained in year-over-year inflationary territory, it also declined sequentially for the second straight quarter (more on that below).
There were pockets of volatility, driven by produce season and summer shipping events (Memorial Day, DOT week, 4th of July build up); however, their cumulative impact proved to be negligible.
Each event brought about a short-lived spike to spot rates, but the market returned to the baseline within the week following.
- Q2 truckload spot rates remained inflationary, but less so compared to Q1
Truckload spot rates increased 6.5% year-over-year at the end of Q2, down slightly from 9.1% in Q1 (which was down slightly from 11.6% in Q4). - Q2 truckload contract remained inflationary, but less so compared to Q1
Truckload contract rates* increased 1.1% year-over-year, down slightly from 1.4% in Q1.
Download all the Curve charts for your next presentation.
Actual Spot Truckload Rates vs. Year-Over-Year
To build further confidence in the Curve (a year-over-year spot rate index), let’s see it up against our proprietary all-in cost-per-mile index — this is comparing annual change (without fuel) versus the actual rate (all-in cost, with fuel included).
As a reminder, these numbers are informed by real transactional data from thousands of daily shipments over the last 18 years.
After remaining essentially flat for the better part of two years, we finally saw our all-in index start to climb in Q4, and again in Q1.
In Q2 however, it reversed course, dipping slightly.
Download all the Curve charts for your next presentation.
The Q2 Curve was lower than in Q1 2025 & Q4 2024 — are we heading back towards deflation?
In previous truckload market cycles, when shipping events hit during the upswing into inflation, they tend to accelerate market activity (i.e., pouring lighter fluid on the bonfire).
In this market cycle, similar to the end of the previous cycle, major shipping events are not having the same impact.
Once again, shipping events came (DOT week, Memorial Day, 4th of July, produce season), increased spot market activity for a short period of time, then the market retreated back, settling closer to the pre-event baseline.
That said, though conditions have been relatively stagnant, no, this market cycle has not already peaked.
Let’s look at three reasons why:
1. A kink in the line is normal during a cycle.
This is far from atypical — look at previous cycles and you’ll find seven other examples of when the Curve has trended down during an upswing or trended up during a downswing.
The key is taking a long view of cycle activity to determine the overarching trend.
2. It’d be difficult for rates to move materially lower.
Looking at the all-in index, in absolute terms, carriers are getting similar spot rates to those they were getting during the market peak in 2014, though their operating costs (diesel, insurance, labor, etc.) have risen significantly since then.
For context, the average marginal cost to operate a truck in 2024 was around 34% higher than in 2014, according to the American Transportation Research Institute.
Simply put, it is difficult for freight rates to drop materially, as many carriers have been running with unsustainable unit economics.
3. Any uptick in demand would drive rates higher.
Due to recent volatility in international trade policy, many shippers and consumers have been conservative in new spending.
If more trade deals are finalized, and companies and consumers feel more confident in making purchases, it would create a surge in shipping.
This would be especially true with peak season approaching. Given the long period of low rates and carrier attrition, there is not enough carrier capacity to absorb incremental freight growth.
Q2 2025 Truckload Market: Key Takeaways
- The Curve (measuring year-over-year in linehaul spot rates, excluding fuel) remained in inflation (though slightly less than Q1), and all-in rates (actual amount paid to carriers) dipped slightly.
- Though we are in an inflationary rate environment, Q2 was still primarily a shippers’ market.
- Carriers remained under significant cost pressure, while shippers enjoyed relatively high tender acceptance rates, easy capacity and slight rate increases in their RFPs.
State of the Industry: Macroeconomic Overview
There has been a considerable amount of volatility in the macroeconomic environment. However, in U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP) rebounded after declining 0.5% in the first quarter.
GDP rose at a seasonally adjusted 3% annual rate in the second quarter. Consumer spending increased by 1.4% in the second quarter, offset by weaker business spending.
While the U.S. economy is still forecasted to grow again for the full year 2025, it needs to contend with several major uncertainties, most notably, the impacts from tariffs and trade policy.
Inflation & Interest Rates
Though inflation has eased considerably over the past two years, there is still a significant amount of uncertainty given the potential impacts from changing trade and tariff policy.
April’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading (+2.3% year-over-year) was the lowest since 2021. However, we’ve seen inflation rise in May (2.4%) and again in June (2.7%).
The core Consumer Price Index (CPI), which excludes volatile food and energy costs, was flat in May (2.8% year-over-year) and ticked up slightly in June (2.9%).
Additionally, core inflation remains higher than the Federal Reserve’s 2% target rate. Specifically, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of underlying inflation increased in June at one of the fastest paces this year, at 2.8% on an annual basis.
Tariff and Trade Policy Impact
While the U.S. government has struck several important deals with major trading partners, and other tariff deadlines have been pushed out, the prospect of ongoing, widespread tariffs looms large and could still have a significant impact on inflation in the coming months.
The overall situation we laid out in our Q2 update is still largely true today:
- Many shippers still have non-tariffed goods throughout their supply chains, and others may have absorbed the cost of tariffs insofar, anticipating a change in trade policy.
- If higher tariffs go into effect, shippers will either absorb the elevated costs, impacting corporate profit margins, or pass them through to consumers.
In the wake of recent trade deals, consumers are somewhat more hopeful that things will stabilize.
After consumer sentiment fell to its second lowest level in recorded history in April and May (according to the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index), it rebounded slightly in June (though still tracking at its lowest point since late 2022).
Ultimately, inflation and the potential for future interest rate cuts are inextricably linked to changes in trade policy, which, of late, has been highly fluid.
Though recent actions have de-escalated global tensions, persistent higher tariffs have the potential to accelerate inflation in the near-term.
The Federal Reserve and Rate Cuts
After multiple rate cuts in 2024, the Fed is sitting tight for now, although it was not unanimous. During the July meeting, it was the first time two Governors of the Fed board dissented in more than 30 years.
The Fed has a dual mandate of promoting both price stability and maximum employment.
Until inflation begins to ease, or there is a major change in the health of the labor market, dramatic interest rate cuts remain unlikely. Core inflation – which can be impacted by changing trade policy – will be a major determinant guiding monetary policy.
Currently, financial markets are pricing in approximately two cuts before the end of the year: one in September, and another cut closer towards the end of the year.
Industrial Demand
Early in the year, the industrial sector of the U.S. economy was beginning to show signs of improvement.
After 26 straight months of contraction, the Manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) entered into expansionary territory in January and February.
However, since March, the index has sunk back into contraction.
The New Orders component of the Manufacturing PMI — one of the strongest leading indicators for U.S. economic activity — had been improving for five consecutive months, then dropped for two months, rebounded slightly, and dropped again.
New Orders have been in contraction for five consecutive months.
Similar to inflation, fluid trade and tariff policy will play a big role in this index’s behavior.
Will the Big Beautiful Bill impact demand?
On July 4th, the President signed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act into law.
This landmark piece of legislation could have a wide-reaching impact on overall demand and production, which influences truckload shipping.
Specifically, there are a few key provisions that could have a secondary impact on trucking: an extension of the 2017 temporary tax cuts, a further reduction in taxes the wealthiest Americans, the ability for companies to fully expense domestic research and development, full bonus depreciation for companies on qualified production properties, an increase in defense spending, and a decrease in clean energy investments.
- The case for: tax cuts for corporations (especially for research and development, equipment purchases, and factory construction), coupled with tariff-driven reshoring efforts, could free up cash flow and incentivize increased domestic investment, spurring more domestic freight activity.In the shorter term, an increase in anti-immigration funding could have a chilling effect on foreign drivers, reducing overall carrier capacity.
- The case against: the volatility of current trade policy, coupled with the time and infrastructure necessary to reshore manufacturing, may not lead to a significant increase in U.S. production, and if it does, it may be years away.
While the BBB may lead to a long-term increase in domestic freight activity, current trade policy will likely have a much bigger impact in the short term.
Key Economic Indicators Driving the Truckload Market
Now that we’ve covered the broader economy, let’s look at some indicators that are most closely linked to truckload market activity.
Overall, we’ve seen relative stagnation in these indicators (with the exception of imports; more on that below), perpetuating the trend of muted truckload volumes, which have, in turn, slowed down a freight market recovery.
Let’s examine the most recent available figures for industrial production, consumer spending, imports and inventories through the lens of how they are impacting truckload shipping.
Download all the Curve charts for your next presentation.
Note: Truckload Market Inflation/Deflation vs. Economic Growth/Recession
It’s worth noting that though the truckload market is linked to what happens in the wider economy, the two are not always coupled.
Given how supply and demand work in the truckload market, it’s possible for the economy to remain strong and the truckload market to languish. It’s also possible for the truckload market to inflate while the economy weakens (see the inflationary Curve in 2008 during the Great Recession).
More specifically, looking at the current environment, carriers are combating lagging freight volumes, a continuation of muted spot market rates and inflation in their overall cost structures (labor, insurance, etc.).
A continuation of these trends could topple even more carriers who have been barely hanging on for the last year. Any significant reduction in the carrier base could drive up rates, even in a lower demand environment (e.g., an economic recession).
Personal Consumption Expenditures
- What is it?
How much the American consumer is spending - How it impacts truckload shipping:
The more we buy, the more we need to produce (IP) and/or buy elsewhere (imports), which translates to greater demand for truckload shipping.
While we’ve had more than two years of persistent inflation and fears of a possible recession, consumer spending has remained stable, helping to buoy the overall economy.
Though the rate of growth has steadily slowed since Q4 2021, it is still growing — through Q2 2025, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index is at 4.9%* year-over-year, slightly down from 5.3% in Q1.
Consumer confidence has risen slightly, however, consumers are putting big-ticket purchases on hold while continuing to prioritize spending on services.
Goods vs. Services in Consumer Spending
When COVID struck, service-related industries closed and, in turn, demand for physical goods (which required more freight shipping) soared to 15-year highs in an incredibly short period of time, driving a commensurately high inflationary spot market.
Over the past several years post-COVID, U.S. consumers have increased their preference for services (vacations, dining, entertainment, etc.), which has decreased physical goods’ share of wallet, resulting in less freight.
Though the rate of decline for total spending on goods has stabilized, it is still tracking below the baseline average (32%) of the 2010’s. We’ll look for any increase in this to drive more freight demand in the coming months.
Industrial Production (IP)
- What is it?
Total value of physical goods America is producing - How it impacts truckload shipping:
The more we make, the more freight that needs to move, from raw material inputs to finished goods
After trending downwards for several quarters, Industrial Production had a slight bump upwards in Q1, hitting 1.5%. In Q2, the index dipped slightly to 0.9%.
While this may seem like positive news, similar to the Purchasing Manager’s Index (referenced above) and imports (referenced below), it could be attributed to shippers getting ahead of potential tariffs, and not necessarily from a sustainable increase in demand.
Imports (Goods Only)
- What is it?
Total value of physical goods America is buying from other countries - How it impacts truckload shipping:
The more we buy from other countries, the more freight that needs to move, from raw material inputs to finished goods
Imports (of goods, excluding services) ended Q1 at 14.5% year-over-year, spiking from 5.7% in Q4.
We can attribute most of this increase to the impact of tariffs, as many shippers were scrambling to replenish inventories with non-tariffed goods before updated trade policies set in.
And indeed, in Q2 import growth fell to 0.8% year-over-year, and if tariffs persist, this figure will drop even lower.
Furthermore, continued consumer preference of services over goods could also have a dampening effect to import growth.
Where did all the imports go?
Q1 saw a surge in import volumes, but it didn’t translate to a surge in truckload freight volumes.
It’s likely that many of these imports were destined for inventory and safety stock, which means a lot of the volume is sitting in warehouses and/or travelled on cheaper modes (i.e., intermodal) with longer transit times — either way, it wasn’t hitting truckload supply chains.
Inventory-to-Sales (Through May)
- What is it?
The ratio of physical goods businesses have in stock vs. how much they’re selling - How it impacts truckload shipping:
When inventory levels are high, it creates a delay in demand for truckload shipping, as businesses will work off excess inventory before producing new goods (IP) or buying more goods (imports).
After peaking at 1.42 in Q2 2023, the index trended down slightly, and then remained mostly flat for every month since.
Interestingly, though many expected the ratio to increase when the April and May data set in as shippers tried to stockpile non-tariffed goods prior to tariff implementation, it actually remained flat. Through May (the most recent data available), the index is sitting at 1.39.
With the index remaining stable for the past two years, the post-COVID destocking efforts were successful, and we’re back in a more normative restocking cycle.
To that point, U.S. retailers’ inventory positions have continued to grow at a slower rate than their revenue, a sign that shippers are once again more comfortable with a “just in time” inventory strategy.
Given recent supply chain stability, combined with consumer preference for the service economy, retailers have been reluctant to build up significant inventory levels like they did in 2022 and 2023.
Macroeconomy & the Truckload Market: Key Takeaways
- Despite continued headwinds over the past two years, the U.S. economy has avoided a recession (at least for the time being), buoyed by stable consumer spending.
- We are operating in a fluid environment — tariffs and trade policy are driving significant economic uncertainty, which has led to declining consumer confidence and rising long-term inflation expectations, though both have mitigated somewhat since Q1.
- Industrial production and imports both decreased in Q2, in line with expectations.
- The last time the cycle went inflationary (2020 – 2021), surging freight demand drove rate growth. For this inflationary leg, the current macroeconomic outlook doesn’t support a massive spike in demand — it’s more likely that supply-side constraints (carrier attrition) will likely be the driving force.
- That said, any tariff de-escalation could spur increased demand (and subsequent supply chain volatility) during peak season.
Truckload Market Trends to Watch in Q3 2025
We have climbed out of the trough of the truckload market cycle and are well into year-over-year rate inflation.
Let’s unpack a few of the key trends impacting the market before we dive into the updated Q3 forecast.
1. Freight demand could snap back, driving truckload market volatility.
Generally speaking, freight demand (covered in detail in the macroeconomic section above) has been lagging, leading to weaker truckload volumes and stable spot market rates.
Though tariff-related volatility has not yet created a surge of truckload volume, it could later in the year.
Many shippers have paused orders, hoping for more favorable trade policies in the near future.
If trade tensions continue to de-escalate, we could see a snap back in demand. As shippers look to build inventory ahead of Q4 peak season, there could also be a rush of orders during the end of Q3, leading to port congestion and volatility.
2. Spot rates continue to trail contract rates.
For the past few years, shippers have used their transportation RFPs as opportunities to bring their contract rates (aka primary rates) back towards pre-pandemic levels — and they were largely successful.
Even though spot rates have bounced off the bottom and been year-over-year inflationary for several quarters, they are, in absolute terms, unable to consistently overtake contract rates.
Here’s an overview of the spot/contract dynamic over the past several months:
- The spot market went year-over-year inflationary, but contract rates were still generally higher in absolute terms.
We experienced the longest stretch of discounted spot rates compared to contract rates in history, lasting over two-and-a-half years. - Spot rates overtook contract rates (in absolute terms) in Q4.
Over the Q4 2024 Peak Season and into January, we finally saw that trend snap, and there was an 11-week period where spot rates were finally moving at a premium to contract rates in the RXO network. - Then the two switched back in Q1.
However, by mid-February, this once again reversed, and into Q2, spot rates were consistently moving at a 5%-8% discount to contract.
While a muted spot market in Q1 and early Q2 is normal given typical seasonality, by later in Q2, when produce season and summer shipping ramp up, it almost always becomes tighter. However, this year it didn’t materialize, and spot rates were largely running at a discount to contract.
The persistence of these low rates, both in contract and spot, is placing an immense amount of pressure on carriers. If (and likely, when) enough carriers get driven out of the market, it will trigger a rise in spot rates, but the timeline for the flip keeps getting pushed out given weak conditions.
When it does eventually happen, those contract rates and routing guides set in the softer market may not survive a tighter market, when the spot market will become more lucrative than the contract market.
3. Class 8 truckload orders continue to drop.
Looking at past truckload market cycles, when times are good for carriers (i.e., high spot rates), they order more trucks, and vice versa. Throughout much of 2023 and 2024, though truckload rates were deflationary, orders remained curiously strong.
In 2025, we finally started seeing truckload order trends catch up to market conditions. In Q1, class 8 tractor orders (as tracked by ACT Research) were down -15.5% year-over-year, and Q2 sank even lower, finishing at -42.7% year-over-year.
This is another indicator showing the financial strain on the supply base from the prolonged soft freight market. Combined with high interest rates and a lack of clarity in the regulatory environment, fleets are purchasing the minimum amount of new equipment.
We’ve also seen a significant pull back from large private fleets, which have been a major tailwind to truckload spot rate expansion during this cycle.
In response to COVID-era volatility, many shippers built out their private fleets. When demand tapered off in 2023, this incremental new fleet capacity was soaking up a lot of freight that would have previously hit the for-hire market, prolonging the down-cycle.
Any continued reduction of large private fleet capacity will be a net gain to the for-hire market.
4. Carrier employment continues to wane.
Throughout most of 2023 and into 2024, driver employment figures remained curiously strong, despite weaker market conditions.
As freight volumes dropped, many drivers flocked to the security of larger fleets, which were more exposed to lucrative contract freight.
As these drivers shifted from owner-operators (who don’t show up in payroll data) to W2 employees at fleets, it boosted employment data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). This represents a shift in driver supply, not an increase of overall driver capacity.
Throughout 2024, we finally saw carrier attrition show up in BLS employment numbers and continue to see more attrition into 2025.
All employees, truck transportation
(from the BLS, through June)
- Decreased sequentially for 17 of the past 24 months
- Decreased year-over-year for 24 consecutive months
Production & non-supervisory employees, long-distance trucking
(aka drivers, from the BLS, through May)
- Decreased sequentially for 15 of the past 24 months
- Decreased year-over-year for 24 consecutive months
Operating authorities
The FMCSA tracks carrier operating authorities (new grants, revocations and reinstatements).
As mentioned above, owner-operators do not generally show up in employment numbers. Looking at operating authority activity is another way to get a pulse check on a large, fragmented carrier base.
Though employment is trending down, in March, April, and May, Operating Authorities grew, which was an anomaly — typically, given the current difficult landscape for carriers, revocations should outpace reinstatements and new grants.
What is probably happening:
- Shuffling of drivers from fleets to owner-operators
Large fleets were reducing their driver base, and these drivers were reinstating or setting up new authorities. - Seasonality
Generally, in the spring, operating authority grants increase after a winter of (often) weaker freight volumes.
What’s happening now:
In June, operating authorities should begin to decline again.
Though year to date, there has been a net increase of 382, the population has declined in 20 of the last 24 months, leading to a total decrease of over 33,127 operating authorities over that time frame (for context, there were around 100,000 additions from 2020 to 2022).
Absent a market recovery, elevated insurance premiums and continued cost inflation will likely lead to continued carrier exits over the coming months, particularly those with more exposure to the spot market.
5. Summer shipping events failed to drive market volatility — will peak season?
As we covered above, the combination of DOT Week, Memorial Day, 4th of July and produce season failed to drive sustained volatility — and corresponding rate increases — in Q2.
Though the market was able to absorb all those shipping events in stride, it is still far more susceptible to any supply chain shocks than at any previous point over the past two years.
As evidenced by carrier employment and operating authority data, capacity continues to decrease amidst unsustainably low rates. We’ve also seen tender rejections in the RXO network increase higher than at any point since 2022.
Any demand stimulus, such as a more robust than expected peak season in Q4, could bring about noticeable market volatility.
6. Language requirement enforcement could constrain capacity.
Existing federal law requires that all commercial truck drivers must: “Read and speak the English language sufficiently to converse with the general public, to understand highway traffic signs and signals in the English language, to respond to official inquiries, and to make entries on reports and records.”
On April 28th, President Trump signed an Executive Order that places a renewed and increased focus on enforcement of the English proficiency standard.
The order stated that within 60 days, the Department of Transportation and FMSCA were to begin enforcing this requirement, placing non-compliant drivers out-of-service. With the enforcement deadline starting at the tail end of Q2, we could see some capacity attrition by the end of Q3.
This, combined with increased immigration enforcement spending in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, could lead to a noticeable reduction in the overall driver pool.
Truckload Trends: Key Takeaways
- Not much has changed since our last update: Freight volumes are sluggish, contract and spot rates are comparable, carriers are buying fewer trucks, and carrier attrition in employment continues.
- The speed and severity of the upward climb will depend on if we get an increase in freight demand, how fast carrier capacity exits the market, or a combination of the two.
- We’re as close to equilibrium, in terms of carrier supply and shipper demand, as we’ve been in over two years. Relatively speaking, the capacity situation is much more fragile than at this time last year. With a continued difficult landscape for carriers, it could set the stage for volatility at the end of 2025.
Q3 2025 Truckload Market Forecast
We’ve covered the macroeconomic environment, and key trends — but where does it leave us going forward?
We predict the Curve will continue its move into inflationary territory.
Though capacity and rates might feel stable, we’re in a changing environment; the carrier market is in a much more precarious place than it was over the last few years.
Q3 to Date
Linehaul rates (without fuel) are starting off Q3 sequentially lower than Q2, and it is likely that the Curve index will dip slightly, just like it did in Q2.
But we don’t predict it will go back into deflationary territory. In Q3, it’s most likely that spot rates remain in a state of limbo, without a dramatic movement in either direction.
It’s worth noting that all-in rates (fuel inclusive) remain relatively stagnant, even sequentially higher. This is largely due to fuel; in Q2, the average diesel price was -8% down year-over-year, while in Q3 to date, it is relatively flat.
2025 Outlook
We expect carrier capacity to continue leaving the market.
Though 2025 contract rates slightly increased year-over-year in Q2, spot rates are likely to continue rising at a faster rate. Eventually, spot rates will overtake contract rates, and this divergence will drive volatility as cash-strapped carriers look to increase profitability after a very difficult two years.
All that said, while we are in an inflationary rate environment, we don’t anticipate the sort of extreme conditions we experienced in the last inflationary market in 2020 and 2021.
Based on recent history and current market dynamics (shrinking but still available capacity, stable demand), it’s quite possible we’ll see a lower potential market peak; for guidance, a look back to 2014 would likely be a better comparison.
We may still get a more traditional peak if we experience any combination of an increase in demand, a faster-than-expected exit of carriers or a spike in diesel, but we think a conservative outlook is more likely.
A lot of it will hinge on stability (or lack thereof) in trade policy, and how shippers and consumers respond.
Is the truckload cycle broken?
At this point, with quarter after quarter resulting in a similar update, it’s worth asking the question: did COVID-era supply chain volatility break the truckload market cycle? We don’t think so.
The fundamental market structure (large, fragmented carrier base) is still the same.
Instead, we think this is an especially bad hangover after an especially wild ride in 2021 and 2022. Carriers made an exceptional amount of money, capacity grew by an exceptional amount, and it’s taking an exceptionally long time for the market to return to equilibrium.
Though this cycle peak may be far more muted than previous cycles, it is still moving in a familiar pattern.
Q3 2025 Forecast: Key Takeaways
- We are in an inflationary spot market, and spot rates, both in year-over-year and in absolute terms, will likely continue to be inflationary.
- Carriers remain under immense cost pressure, and an increase in carrier exits and/or an increase in freight demand would drive the market higher into inflation.
- In absolute terms, spot rates are lagging contract rates for now, but if this dynamic shifts during Q3, it will create pressure for shippers later in the year.
- Q3 will not likely feel like a dramatically different operating environment, but we are in a changing marketplace that may set us up for a more meaningful flip at the end of the year.
- The severity of an inflationary spike in freight rates will largely depend on tariffs and how shippers and carriers respond, as well as consumer demand and the extent that it causes a peak season.
Next Steps: Get Your KPIs in Order With the Latest Research
Did you know that 99% of carriers take shippers KPI expectations into account before agreeing to move a load with them?
As we head deeper into an inflationary market, it’s the perfect time to check yours up against industry standards.
We recently published the 2025 edition of our original, independent research study on logistics KPIs, and it’s loaded with insights and benchmarks, informed by 1,000 shippers and carriers.
Check out the research study now to start having a more data-driven network.
